How many NBA championships will Jason Tatum win as a player?
He doesn't need to be the best player, just on the roster. Market resolves when he retires. If he looks like he'll play beyond the resolution date, I'll add more time.
1,00027% this year - age 28
19% next year - age 29
13% in 2027 - age 30
9% in 2028 - age 31
I'd expect him to win ~1.2 more rings (~2.2 total) in his career on average
Given Celtics win this year, I'd probably increase it to ~3.1 total rings vs ~1.9 given they don't.
Then in 2027
so roughly need to map out the scenarios for next 3 years then assuming that he's expected to win poisson(0.6) rings from age 31 onwards.
3 rings in next 3 years
27% x 20% x 20% = 1% -> other
2 rings in next 3 years:
73% x 18% x 20% = 2.6%
27% x 20% x 80% = 4.3%
27% x 80% x 13% = 2.8%
7.7% -> 4.2% of 3, 3.5% of other
0 rings in next 3 years:
73% x 82% x 89% = 53.3%
-> 29.3% of 1, 17.6% of 2, 5.3% of 3, 1.1% of Other
BTW it's Jayson not Jason, so technically it should be 0