Who is the March 2, 2025 crypto long bet whale? (if known within 2 years) (add answers)
2
1.2kṀ146
2027
38%
[not known by March 2, 2027]
6%
Elon Musk
17%
David Sacks
38%
Other

Refer to https://manifold.markets/JZB/identity-of-march-2-2025-crypto-lon for background discussion. (Credit to JZB for the resolution criteria which I leaned on for this market!) (Note that that market runs for 1 year, while this market runs for 2 years.)


This market will resolve to the real-world identity (name of individual or organization) behind the wallet address that made the $200 million leveraged bet on March 2, 2025, if the identity is publicly and credibly revealed within two years of the trade (by March 2, 2027).

TODO: I am still considering how to resolve edge cases where there are multiple individuals behind the wallet address.

The market will resolve as "[not known by March 2, 2027]" if:

  • Only the wallet address or pseudonym remains known without confirmation of the real-world identity

  • The identity remains speculative or unconfirmed by credible sources

  • No definitive identification is made by March 2, 2027

Duplicate answers will be disqualified. Though I don't expect to, I may disqualify other answers if I deem it necessary/appropriate.

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