Under an hour before Trump announced the Crpyto Strategic Reserve, a trader made a leveraged bet on Bitcoin and Etherium worth $200 million. Will the identify of this trader be known within a year of placing the bet?
Background
On March 2, 2025, just under an hour before Donald Trump announced the Crypto Strategic Reserve, a cryptocurrency trader made a significant leveraged bet on Bitcoin and Ethereum worth approximately $200 million. This trader, currently identified only by the wallet address "0xe4d31c25," subsequently earned approximately $6.8 million in profits when crypto prices surged following Trump's announcement.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve as YES if the real-world identity (name of individual or organization) behind the wallet address that made the $200 million leveraged bet on March 2, 2025, is publicly and credibly revealed within one year of the trade (by March 2, 2026).
The market will resolve as NO if:
Only the wallet address or pseudonym remains known without confirmation of the real-world identity
The identity remains speculative or unconfirmed by credible sources
No definitive identification is made by March 2, 2026
Considerations
Cryptocurrency transactions are pseudonymous by design, making it difficult to link wallet addresses to real-world identities without additional information
The identity could potentially be revealed through various means, including:
Law enforcement investigations (if insider trading is suspected)
Voluntary disclosure by the trader
Investigative journalism
Blockchain analysis combined with other identifying information
The timing of the trade has raised questions about potential insider information, which could increase the likelihood of investigations into the trader's identity
See: