Will the identity of the March 2, 2025 crypto long bet whale be revealed?
4
105Ṁ226
2026
14%
chance

Under an hour before Trump announced the Crpyto Strategic Reserve, a trader made a leveraged bet on Bitcoin and Etherium worth $200 million. Will the identify of this trader be known within a year of placing the bet?

Background

On March 2, 2025, just under an hour before Donald Trump announced the Crypto Strategic Reserve, a cryptocurrency trader made a significant leveraged bet on Bitcoin and Ethereum worth approximately $200 million. This trader, currently identified only by the wallet address "0xe4d31c25," subsequently earned approximately $6.8 million in profits when crypto prices surged following Trump's announcement.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve as YES if the real-world identity (name of individual or organization) behind the wallet address that made the $200 million leveraged bet on March 2, 2025, is publicly and credibly revealed within one year of the trade (by March 2, 2026).

The market will resolve as NO if:

  • Only the wallet address or pseudonym remains known without confirmation of the real-world identity

  • The identity remains speculative or unconfirmed by credible sources

  • No definitive identification is made by March 2, 2026

Considerations

  • Cryptocurrency transactions are pseudonymous by design, making it difficult to link wallet addresses to real-world identities without additional information

  • The identity could potentially be revealed through various means, including:

    • Law enforcement investigations (if insider trading is suspected)

    • Voluntary disclosure by the trader

    • Investigative journalism

    • Blockchain analysis combined with other identifying information

  • The timing of the trade has raised questions about potential insider information, which could increase the likelihood of investigations into the trader's identity

See:

https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:822af766d094b:0-trader-profits-6-8m-from-btc-eth-bets-placed-before-trump-crypto-reserve-post/

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