I work for a mid-sized tech company (20k employees) as a software engineer in the US and am up for promotion to Staff Software Engineer this quarter.

Will I get the promo? Everyone in my org (about 8 teams) who has tried in the past has not gotten the promotion.

My manager says most likely the committee will say my current project needs to ship first and to try again in 6 months.

One of my mentors (E7 from another org) is on the promo committee.