By 2030, will Baldur's Gate 3 be listed on Wikipedia's "List of video games considered the best" page?
11
210แน€315
2030
76%
chance

This market resolves as YES if Baldur's Gate 3 is listed on Wikipedia's "List of video games considered the best" page at any point on or before December 31, 2029.

Note that to resolve as YES, the game must meet the page's criteria:

The games listed here are included on at least six separate "best/greatest of all time" lists from different publications, as chosen by their editorial staffs.

Someone editing the page to place Baldur's Gate 3 there without Baldur's Gate 3 actually meeting the criteria is NOT sufficient for a YES resolution.


Fine print

If Wikipedia permanently deletes the page (or stops existing entirely) by 2030, this market instead resolves based on the criteria quoted in the market description, i.e. inclusion on best/greatest of all time lists. Wikipedia changing the title of the page, but not its content, does not affect anything.

If the criteria of the page change, this market will update to reflect that.

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I think the title of "best game ever" are won only in the public consciousness by games that target a younger demographic that years later, after growing up, writes history based on their nostalgia. I don't see Baldur's Gate 3 in that category.

@SpaceAge Potentially! But given that this is decided by the editorial staff of game publications (who are generally in the game's target demographic,) I think this is a possibility. FWIW it also had something like a 97 on Metacritic after 14 reviews.

predictedNO

@evergreenemily Yeah. Maybe my readoning is too long term and abstract. Or wrong ๐Ÿ˜‚

predictedYES

@SpaceAge Maybe! You could be right, though - it's possible that the game won't age that well, or that it's too niche.

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