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MANIFOLD
Will there be 3 or more major departures of top folks at OpenAI in the 24 hours?
11
Ṁ190Ṁ877
resolved Nov 24
Resolved
NO

What a 'major departure' or 'top folks' is is somewhat subjective, will try to resolve to consensus if available, if not my judgement

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predictedNO

@SDac9c curious what the 1 star review is for? If you wanted to object, you could've commented during the very long close period

predictedYES

Don't 2 board members count as top folk?

Nvm, it says 24 hrs

predictedNO

'24 hours' in the title

predictedYES

@jacksonpolack I think it's a no, then

predictedYES

P s. Mira murati changed her Twitter bio to CTO

predictedNO

@firstuserhere ping, is sidor a top folk?

predictedNO

He's described as a senior researcher, but also as an "open-source baselines researcher" vs the other two "head of AI risk" and "gpt-4 lead". I lean no, because senior != top, but i think it's close to 50/50

predictedYES

@jacksonpolack lemme check

predictedYES

@jacksonpolack ok I won't call sidor a top person but he's a long time senior researcher. Lemme see if anyone else left

predictedYES

@firstuserhere also, sidor is back at openai, atleast in principle

predictedNO

bump, is sidor a top folk or not? i dont have an opinion either way? did anyone else leave?

predictedNO

I'm looking for info on Sidor. The only indication I can find so far he's a 'top guy' is him being cited as a 'senior researcher' as part of three 'senior researchers' departing OpenAI. But descriptors that apply to several people as part of a single sentence is exactly the kind of thing that's going to mutate in transmission across a few people, and 'senior' in that context might (?) just mean he's been there for a while.

predictedNO

Sidor must be talented researcher (no one can be afloat in OpenAI without talent and hard work). But I believe he is not a team leader of recent effort in OpenAI, as he write his past leadership position in LinkedIn. Now I think it is the YES holder’s responsibility to prove he is “top” members.

https://www.linkedin.com/mwlite/profile/in/szymon-sidor-98164044

it's been 24 hours!

1) Have there been more departures after those three?
2) Is Sidor a "top folks"?

If there's a consensus in comments I'll most likely go with it

predictedNO

I am not sure if Sidor is 'top' or not, absent some idea of his role

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/three-senior-openai-researchers-resign-as-crisis-deepens

Jakub Pachocki, the company’s director of research; Aleksander Madry, head of a team evaluating potential risks from AI, and Szymon Sidor, a seven-year researcher at the startup, told associates they had resigned, these people said.

I think Pachocki and Madry satisfys the ceriteria. Sidor seems not. (Alex Cohen is just joking.)

To be clear, this excludes Sam and Greg, right? Seems like there already is 1. Alex Cohen.