Will the "░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░" bots be gone from twitter before the end of 2024?
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159
17k
2025
46%
chance

It doesn't have to be exactly that, but something similar to it. Yes, that's subjective, but I think any more objective criteria will be goodhearted in the fight between twitter and the bots.

Resolves NO if people still see that regularly, YES if it's much less common than it is now.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ100 NO

They don't say "nudes in bio" now, but i still get em. All the time.

GlitzkriegboughtṀ50YES

Nudes in bio is such a transitory step in the bot / filter arms race. No way this lasts a year.

i have weak priors here. why are these bots still there? and what is X’s optimal strategy for addressing them?

Is MPIB Elon’s fault? Share your opinion here!

bought Ṁ50 NO

Please specify the yes criteria further

@noney It's fundamentally just subjective. The bots and twitter are fighting, and I don't want to lay down specific criteria that the bots will then technically avoid as they try to avoid twitter's spam filters.

But the recent trend of nude photos that direct people to bios would count too

@jacksonpolack Wait, are you saying any bot advertising pornography means No? Totally different to how I read this. "[Nudes] in bio" is a specific type of spam

@jacksonpolack Some more specificity would still be good. Would someone spending a few hours a day on Twitter seeing NUDES IN BIO once a month count as the bots still there?

Good market! Could you please take a few measurements now of the current state? E.g. on 100 tweets in your timeline, how many instances of nudes bots are there? Same for a new account, or on the top 10 accounts on twitter by follower count? Just so that we've got some hard point of comparison rather than just memory.

@TonyJackson I think it's like 1 in 20 today

I haven't seen them, but then again, I only use Twitter to find and/or create takes for the good tweet/bad tweet market.

bought Ṁ30 YES

I'm seeing none at the moment, but it could just be one battle won in the arms race, or maybe the bots aren't on just at this moment:

https://twitter.com/search?q=filter%3Areplies&src=typed_query&f=live

they've had to start using different words but i'm still seeing a lot of the same kind of thing

I wouldn’t be optimistic about this.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@pdw Even Mana-chan is getting in on it

░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░

Honestly the bot strategy that most annoys me is the linked crypto scam in replies.

this market would cover those too!