Will I belive any Boeing whistleblowers were murdered for whistleblowing at >20% probability at the end of 2025?
Will I belive any Boeing whistleblowers were murdered for whistleblowing at >20% probability at the end of 2025?
3
100Ṁ225Jan 1
10%
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Murder must have been by Boeing or by the CIA or something like that. "Whistleblower for boeing contractor" counts as whistleblower. Cumulative probability of 'one was murdered for whistleblowing'. My current probability is <1%, but I am extremely willing to change my mind when the evidence warrants it, and that happens a lot! I'm not sure if I'm 1% or .1% right now, but if we go with 1%, if probabilities evolve continuously you'd expect it to jump to 20% 5% of the time.
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@jacksonpolack I don't know almost anything about it. I'll be interested in how this resolves though, pretty clear where your starting point is at this moment
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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