Will I belive any Boeing whistleblowers were murdered for whistleblowing at >20% probability at the end of 2025?
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Jan 1
10%
chance

Murder must have been by Boeing or by the CIA or something like that. "Whistleblower for boeing contractor" counts as whistleblower. Cumulative probability of 'one was murdered for whistleblowing'. My current probability is <1%, but I am extremely willing to change my mind when the evidence warrants it, and that happens a lot! I'm not sure if I'm 1% or .1% right now, but if we go with 1%, if probabilities evolve continuously you'd expect it to jump to 20% 5% of the time.

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opened a Ṁ200 NO at 10% order

@Tumbles wonder why you think this isn't 0%?

@jacksonpolack I don't know almost anything about it. I'll be interested in how this resolves though, pretty clear where your starting point is at this moment

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