Prize Market
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/18/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah
Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s top leadership, said Saturday he would soon leave the country’s emergency wartime government unless Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked to answer major unanswered questions over the future of Israel’s war.
“If you choose the path of zealots, dragging the country into the abyss, we will be forced to leave the government,” Mr. Gantz said in a televised news conference. “We will turn to the people and build a government that will earn the people’s trust.”
Mr. Gantz, who leads the National Unity party, said he would give Mr. Netanyahu until Jun. 8 — about three weeks — to reach an agreement in Israel’s war cabinet on a plan that would return the hostages and address the future governance of Gaza, among other goals.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ6,595 | |
| 2 | Ṁ5,146 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3,820 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3,805 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2,221 |
@ManifoldPolitics Subsidizing underspecified markets using vague, underdefined terms like "leaving government" that have obvious interpretive risk sends a poor signal to new users when they are creating markets. They will see this and think that this is the appropriate way to create markets on Manifold. @JamesGrugett
@gpt_news_headlines If a user doesn't wish to use a template from a previous, proven market or make an effort to research and layout objective terms on a novel issue, than the market should just be considered subjective.
Subsidizing subjective markets is fine I suppose, debate is fun, but there should be some agreement first that the market is subjective so new users know what is being done.
As a warning to anyone new who might bet on this market, (at time of writing) it's very subjective and underdefinite and you're largely trying to guess how the creator will resolve it under many different circumstances. The time to clarify is before betting rather than after, if at all.
@gpt_news_headlines I'm generally all for pushing market creators into clarifying their criteria, but... This one is pretty clear, no? If Gantz leaves the cabinet, this resolves YES. What's ambiguous about that?
@gpt_news_headlines if you want specific clarification or think anything in particular is uncertain, it's best to comment and ask about it. making declarations or 'warnings' to bettors doesn't add any value without context.
@gpt_news_headlines I agree, there is nothing to clarify – it is already clear enough. You don't want to bet, you don't bet, it's simple.
@gpt_news_headlines at this point you're basically being dishonest. You should either present your specific criticism of the market or stop posting worthless comments.
@BrunoParga Your definition was fine. That wasn't the definition in the market however. If it's just him quitting the cabinet, than that's clear. You concluded that, however, and it wasn't stated.
@BrunoParga Also, I am not being dishonest. There's nothing wrong with creativing markets where the creator can decide on the fly how to handle edge cases rather than researching and laying them out up front. They are subjective markets and it's easier for sure to do just that.
@BrunoParga I see a vague, underdefined term "leave the government". It's imprecise and broad and has no clear boundaries. If there is some kind of knesset jujitsu performed, as often there is in Israel, something middle of the road could occur.
If you want the market to be objective you need to define your terms and say something specific, like leaving the cabinet. Does he also have to leave the coalition?
@gpt_news_headlines you could maybe be right that this is underspecified, and in any case it could be phrased more clearly.
However, I do think there are fewer possibilities than you are imagining - I don't know how familiar you are with parliamentary government. The government is the cabinet is the coalition. Benny Gantz is his party. His threat is clear: either Netanyahu presents a plan Gantz finds good enough, or his party will leave the ruling coalition. I don't know the current composition of the Knesset, but that would mean basically one of three things - Netanyahu trying to form another coalition, some other coalition trying to reach majority and form a new government, or the Knesset is dissolved and new elections are held. But all of these are not even crucial to the question. The question is clear on the title: on June 18, is Benny Gantz a government MK?
@BrunoParga I am willing to admit this is not as subjective as some other markets, but he's a mod and this market with title only is a poor role model for new users. And while I suspect this will resolve OK, there is still about 10% or so interpretive risk.
For example, he's currently a minister without portfolio and has access to a lot of the government internal knowledge. Is there some way his party can withdraw from the coalition and he can maintain that? Does he do a deal with Gallant in some manner?
@BrunoParga BTW, Gantz and his party leaving will only thin the margins which is why the threat is a little hollow. He will need another 4 or 5 to leave the coalition to bring down the government. Gallant perhaps, and some friends.