Close date isn't binding and may be extended as long as information is coming out. Resolves N/A in the (unlikely) case information about the person doesn't come out.
Center-right is still right-wing, this is from the perspective of american politics.
For example: If they posted about as much centrist, progressive, and conservative content, resolves NO. If they have only posted only one right-wing meme and no other political content ever, resolves NO, but a small amount of right-wing posts would resolve YES. Can resolves based on archives of their social media accounts, media reports, etc.
1,000
3.00This is my current interpretation. It isn't a direct clarification, it isn't directly binding if I'm wrong, although based on other recent evidence it seems very unlikely to be relevant to the resolution. I asked a few mods and a majority agreed.
Being a registered Republican is much stronger evidence than a tiny donation to dems. If no more evidence exists other than that, this should resolve YES. If more evidence comes out, I'll evaluate the totality of the evidence. My interpretation of 'Republican' refers to the person's views or voting intent, not their registration. At the unlikely extreme, if every reliable source confirms he had a Twitter account and the account had lots of progressive content for years, or if his family and friends all say he was a committed progressive, it'd resolve NO. I think it's rather unlikely this distinction will matter for this market, though.
I think think the general use of the term 'Republican' is closer to the 'views / voting intent' interpretation than the 'registration' interpretation. If a person intended to vote Trump and had the standard right-wing set of beliefs, but hadn't changed their voter registration yet, I wouldn't call them a democrat in a conversation. If someone intends to vote R but isn't registered at the moment, they don't feel any less R to me than someone who is registered. If someone who votes D generally cared so much about dems winning that they registered R to vote for unelectable candidates in a primary, I wouldn't refer to that person as a republican.
The use of the term 'republican' clearly was confusing, though, so I'll try to have a clearer description and use more precise language in the future.
FBI officials said Crooks’s online activities showed a “mixture of ideologies” and that they are continuing to look into his online presence.
“We see no definitive ideology associated with our subject, either left leaning or right leaning,” Mr Rojek said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c785vyg55xyo
This is answers directly the question of this market. The yes resolution is simply wrong...
@jacksonpolack This needs to be unresolved ASAP. I expect better from a creator such as yourself on here.
"Officials say Trump rally was "a target of opportunity" & shooter had no defined ideology."
As I said in a long comment below, if the shooter had no available information other than the Republican registration, that would resolve this yes. If they registered Republican and did not make a single statement about politics since, that would resolve this yes.
@jacksonpolack This is so absolutely disingenuous and utterly disrespectful to the traders of this market. You should be ashamed of yourself.
Should not be resolved yet. The political affiliation of Crooks has not been announced by FBI. Based on what I have read I think it is unlikely that he is certainly Republican or else the FBI would have said so.
https://www.foxnews.com/us/trump-shooter-multiple-encrypted-accounts-overseas-germany-rep-waltz.amp
We had a market on the assassination where every successive day that it was left open was treated as a great moral tragedy by bettors.
Obviously there's some middle ground here, where things do not have to resolve immediately after an event, but also don't have to be left for months and years just in case something may come out eventually. This is obviously a fine resolution. You can always make another market on this topic and I would definitely bet it down.
@SemioticRivalry You’re saying you’re not leaving it open for “something might come out eventually” meaning that his ideology is not known now. Not knowing whether he is right wing merits a NO resolution.
@jdilla Maybe if Trump winning was at 65% I’d bet, but now I have many markets that I think are better bets
The question isn't whether it's "known" or not but the level of certainty. If we require 99.9999% certainty, we leave a lot of markets open that shouldn't be. If we only require 99% certainty, we misresolve 1% of markets. It's a tradeoff.
there is plenty of info that shows him to be a right-winger/republican. you can think that information isn't convincing, but it certainly exists, and the totality of the info so far is clearly towards Republican. Polymarket resolved to Republican almost a month ago and there is definitely no lib bias on that site. It didn't even get disputed. https://polymarket.com/event/was-the-shooter-a-democrat-or-republican/was-the-shooter-a-democrat-or-republican
Polymarket resolved the Venezuela election winner was Edmundo González taking as primary sources official information from Venezuela, so Polymarket has a scam bias and their resolution in markets where obvious common sense isn't enough means nothing at all.
I'll have an update for you tomorrow! The criteria do say the market doesn't have a fixed resolution date but it seems like more info isn't gonna come out
Most important pieces of evidence so far: "700 ‘extreme’ anti-immigrant and antisemitic comments from 2019 to 2020". Then in Jan-Feb 2021, comments (on a very right wing website) in reply to right-wing e-celebs that pushed against the ecelebs and right wing ideas, especially on immigration. Alongside that, a $15 donation to a dem PAC in Jan 2021, and then a Republican voter registration that happened in Sep 2021. Given my previous comment's arguments and the Republican registration happening after everything else, from the evidence so far a YES resolution appears most correct.
Of course, maybe three months (or a year) from now law enforcement will release the contents of his diary, and we'll learn what he he really thought. The probablility of new information coming out never goes to zero, so one needs to pick a threshold. The phrasing in the description, "may be extended as long as information is coming out", pushes towards resolving now, because information isn't coming out anymore, and traders likely bet on a market they expected to resolve within a month. So I'm planning to resolve this in the next few days, but if anyone has good arguments in either direction or I'm misunderstanding something I'd like to hear it! And in the future I'll explicitly set the thresholds for resolution, either in terms of time or certainty (markets without a deadline potentially wouldn't resolve for years!).
I think this was about four hours ago. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/30/social-media-trump-rally-shooter?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
CEO of Gab just posted this on X: "To the best of Gab's knowledge, as of 2021, Crooks was a pro-lockdown, pro-immigration, left-wing Joe Biden supporter."
https://x.com/BasedTorba/status/1818311922560774188/photo/1