Close date isn't binding and may be extended as long as information is coming out. Resolves N/A in the (unlikely) case information about the person doesn't come out.
Center-left is still left, this is from the perspective of american politics.
For example: If they posted about as much centrist, progressive, and conservative content, resolves NO. If they have only posted only one progressive meme and no other political content ever, resolves NO, but a small amount would reolve YES. Can resolves based on archives of their social media accounts, media reports, etc.
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ9,752 | |
| 2 | Ṁ5,780 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3,736 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,473 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,195 |
@jacksonpolack Why was this resolved when information could still come out. I bet under the impression that the close date would certainly be extended - "Close date isn't binding and may be extended as long as information is coming out."
This should not be resolved. The FBI has an open investigation into Crooks and they have not announced his political affiliation. This week, three new social media accounts were found but not made public.
@mods If you reopen it, I’ll bet 1000 on yes.
The FBI has not said anything about his politics. If they thought he was right wing they would have said so immediately. The most likely motives for shooting Trump are hating his politics or working for a foreign government. I think the chance that the FBI is waiting to release that he is left wing until after the election is larger than 5%.
Most important pieces of evidence so far: "700 ‘extreme’ anti-immigrant and antisemitic comments from 2019 to 2020". Then in Jan-Feb 2021, comments (on a very right wing website) in reply to right-wing e-celebs that pushed against the ecelebs and right wing ideas, especially on immigration. Alongside that, a $15 donation to a dem PAC in Jan 2021, and then a Republican voter registration that happened in Sep 2021. Given my previous comment's arguments and the dates, a NO resolution seems the most correct.
Of course, maybe three months (or a year) from now law enforcement will release the contents of his diary, and we'll learn what he he really thought. The probablility of new information coming out never goes to zero, so one needs to pick a threshold. The phrasing in the description, "may be extended as long as information is coming out", pushes towards resolving now, because information isn't coming out anymore, and traders likely bet on a market they expected to resolve within a month. So I'm planning to resolve this in the next few days, but if anyone has good arguments in either direction or I'm misunderstanding something I'd like to hear it! And in the future I'll explicitly set the thresholds for resolution, either in terms of time or certainty (markets without a deadline potentially wouldn't resolve for years!).
Unlike his voter registration and donation, whether he was the one who posted those comments is unclear and has not been established. While making anti-immigrant comments are generally seen from Republicans, the antisemitism we see today is almost exclusively from Democrats.
Very poor resolution to this market.
"the antisemitism we see today is almost exclusively from Democrats"
...No?
Like, I get into a lot of arguments with people I'm friends with by saying that "antisemitism filtered through the lens of Israel" is a form of antisemitism. But the data we have is really clear on this, if we remove Israel from the equation antisemitism is substantially higher from the right, and even if we talk about Israel it doesn't increase what we might call "traditional antisemitism" (that is to say, people are primed to think about Israel, but are still talking about antisemitic tropes qua Jews) by a substantial amount.
I don't understand your argument. The question was: was he a "progressive, democrat, leftist, or otherwise lean left". As described below, given just the registration and donation i would resolve NO, so the unreliability of the social media comments (which do not indicate he's a democrat) doesn't affect the resolution. I listed them to indicate I'd gone through the relevant evidence.
@jacksonpolack You didn’t @ traders and your claim that he is not possibly a left winger is idiotic.
@jacksonpolack Why is registration more swaying than the donation? I assume you know that the Pennsylvania has closed primaries and registering as a Republican would allow someone to, for example, vote against Trump even if they're not actually Republicans. Someone who hates Trump enough to try to blow his head off might be the type of person to also lie about their political affiliation.
On the other hand, donating to Democrats (if he wasn't a Democrat) doesn't lend itself to any sort of nefarious explanation.
Also, Claiming that 700 posts that are being investigated as being potentially the shooter are some of the "most important evidence" but completely ignoring the FBIs investigation into the Gab accounts and Gab CEO's statements about Thomas Crooks "likely" having had a Gab account that he used to ‘support’ President Biden, is even more telling.
If you had a right-leaning bias you could have just as easily resolved this YES claiming that the most important evidence is that the shooter used a Gab account to support Biden, lockdown policies, and COVID masks and on top of that donated to Democrats. But because you're biased in favor of Democrats you did the exact same thing but in the opposite direction.
There isn't enough material evidence to resolve this market one way or another, and a market-makers own personal bias shouldn't be the dictating factor.
@RiskComplex I think you missed the other part of my comment there.
'and even if we talk about Israel it doesn't increase what we might call "traditional antisemitism" (that is to say, people are primed to think about Israel, but are still talking about antisemitic tropes qua Jews) by a substantial amount'
What does happen is that people on the left are decently likely to buy into antisemitic tropes and frameworks but direct them at Israel as a state rather than at Jews per se. (Which is exactly the strategy that Soviet antizionism attempted, so it's absolutely not surprising to see that it still has substantial currency on the left.)
But, and I want to stress this, so do right wingers! The far left and the far right seem to both have this tendency! And traditional antisemitism is substantially higher on the right, even when the topic of Israel is broached.
Abbate did confirm that there's a suspected Gab account.
"During the hearing, Abbate explained to Senators that the FBI discovered two different social media accounts that they believe may belong to Crooks. According to Abbate, one account shared "antisemitic" topics and thoughts, but a second account on the platform Gab, shared "differing points of view."
"While the investigative team is still working to verify this account to determine if it did in fact belong to the shooter, we believe it important to share and note it today, particularly given the general absence of other information to date from social media and other sources of information that reflect on the shooter's potential motive and mindset," Abbate said during the hearing, while speaking about the social media accounts."
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-thomas-crooks-fbi-assassination-attempt-secret-service-1932300
posts of alleged account for those who dont want to make a gab account 😬