Will use Nate Silver a s a source of polling, unless that disappears then 538, using the average that includes RFK. If harris is not the nom resolves n/a
1,000
3.00@jacksonpolack are there resolution criteria you are waiting to be met? She’s been averaging right under +3 since the 23rd but has hit it the line on the 22nd and today.
@mods Very weird lack of clarification about market resolution vs close from an otherwise active user for the last (almost) week. Not sure what’s going on here.
@LiamZ I think the 22nd makes the most sense, so +3? and yeah I've been much less active and didn't see the pings
@jacksonpolack Thanks, and I could argue an average around close fits with the prediction market purpose (it wasn’t “above above +3”) rather than the +3 line on that day before dipping back down below it for a few days but that favors my position so I’m not impartial. I think either way is “fair.”
@jacksonpolack Also worth noting there’s a little fuzziness here because the polling data each day is from the day before. But hey.
@jacksonpolack is there a reason not to resolve this? She’s at +2.9 again today so it really is going to come down to which exact date is chosen to resolve this or if you are using some kind of average.
Assuming “the nom” is counted as the last night of the DNC, 08/22/24, it looks like she hit the line of +3 exactly on 09/22/24.
Wild how close this timing is. A single day difference resolves differently.
It’s also notable though that she technically was officially nominated much earlier. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/06/democrats-officially-nominate-harris-walz-00172966
The DNC was not the legally binding official nomination due to the concerns about Ohio laws. If the 08/06 date of the nomination was the definition used by this market though, it didn’t make sense to leave it open this late.
Currently +2.7 so within +1 to +3. But it’s close.
