1
Will Ukraine retake western Bakhmut by June 15?
24
closes Jun 16
4%
chance

Resolution

Resolves YES if on or before the specified date, Ukraine controls Bakhmut Children's Hospital in the western part of Bakhmut, according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) - search coordinates 48.5929662N,37.958617E on this map to show the specific location. Otherwise NO.

For this question, the location will be considered under Ukrainian control if it is shaded blue (Ukranian counteroffensives) or unshaded. It will be considered under Russian control if it is shaded red (Assessed Russian Advance/Control) or orange (Claimed Russian Control).

Resolution details

Resolution will be determined by the shading of the map over the center of the dot shown on the ISW interactive map when you search the coordinates specified above.

Resolution will be based on the date shown on the ISW maps. In case it is unclear, the source of truth will be the date of the map updates on the daily Ukraine conflict updates at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.

See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.

The question will resolve solely on ISW maps, except in the unlikely event that ISW maps become unavailable, in which case resolution will instead be based on one of https://deepstatemap.live/en, https://liveuamap.com/, or reliable media reporting, with a deadline of end of day Ukraine time.

ISW Ukraine war maps
ISW Ukraine war maps
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publishes detailed high-fidelity maps of the war in Ukraine, updated daily. This post provides context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. ISW publishes maps which are updated daily to their…
DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine
DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine
News of Russia’s war against Ukraine on the map
Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather related s…
Institute for the Study of War
Institute for the Study of War
This page collects ISW and CTP’s updates on the conflict in Ukraine. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.

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