Resolves YES if former president of the United States Donald J. Trump is criminally indicted in July 2023 (ET). Otherwise NO.
For this question, the time of indictment is when the grand jury votes to indict.
There may be some time between when this vote happens and when the indictment is publicly reported, so the question will remain open until slightly after the specified deadline.
In the event it is unknown whether the grand jury vote to indict was within the specified timeframe, then we will instead treat the time of indictment as the earliest time it is unsealed, officially announced, or reported by reliable media publications.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/politics/trump-special-counsel-probe/index.html
“Deranged Jack Smith, the prosecutor with Joe Biden’s DOJ, sent a letter (again, it was Sunday night!) stating that I am a TARGET of the January 6th Grand Jury investigation, and giving me a very short 4 days to report to the Grand Jury, which almost always means an Arrest and Indictment,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
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Resolved YES because of the superseding indictment with new charges against Trump brought on July 27. See document here: https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/4123937-read-superseding-indictment-says-trump-team-tried-to-delete-mar-a-lago-surveillance-footage/. There's a consensus in the discussion thread below that this counts to resolve YES.
@jack my initial thinking, this is non binding, based on the text of the resolution criteria: if the grand jury voted to indict on new charges, that probably counts. If there was no grand jury vote, that probably doesn't count.
@jack The grand jury is still sitting so there is no reason to think it wasn’t voted on by them. It might not matter because there are still a couple more days for the DC grand jury to indict.
The superseding indictment says "The Grand Jury charges that..." and says July 27 and contains new charges against Trump. See document here: https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/4123937-read-superseding-indictment-says-trump-team-tried-to-delete-mar-a-lago-surveillance-footage/
Seems to meet the resolution criteria to me. If everyone thinks this is a clear YES, will resolve. If people are uncertain then we'll start a discussion process, please comment with your reasoning.
@jack The media doesn't seem to agree on whether the grand jury actually voted or not.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-grand-jury-indictment-rcna96233
edit: nvm. although they did not say that the other indictment was going to happen today until now
@ShadowyZephyr You misread. There are two separate grand juries, one for the Jan 6 case and one for the classified documents case. The classified documents one is the one issuing this new indictment. The Jan 6 grand jury has not indicted yet.
@jack Seems like they voted on it, but why doesn't the media say they voted on it then? Is it because the classified documents indictment is an updated version of a previous indictment?
Edit: I think it should resolve YES based on what we've seen so far, but I might be misinterpreting what happened.
@ShadowyZephyr Correct, it is a revised indictment (the technical term is superseding indictment) in the classified documents case that adds new charges against Trump.
@jack I was confused earlier because that article had 2 bullet points referencing 2 different indictments and I thought they were related because they were in the same article.
The only problem is that this is a superseding indictment, I think resolving to YES or a high percentage is fair. The more interesting one is the market about trump being indicted 3x. If it supersedes the old indictment, is it really a third?
@Daconomist I'm confused, that's the only media that has reported he was indicted
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4123584-no-trump-indictment-expected-thursday-court-official/
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/live-blog/trump-grand-jury-indictment-rcna96233
NBC said "no indictment was returned," they are saying the indictment has only been filed
@BTE There's no guarantee that will happen. There are only a couple days left in July, August seems likely to me.
@BTE That isn't how it usually goes, and most media is saying it won't be earlier than July 31.
@BTE Also why did you bet NO on his next indictment being in Georgia? This is in Georgia, no?
@ShadowyZephyr LMAO! How does it "usually" happen? And I have literally never heard anyone say it cannot happen before August.
@ShadowyZephyr This is NOT GEORGIA. His lawyers were told today by the special prosecutor he is getting charged in federal court imminently for Jan 6th. It is happening tomorrow, just like last time.
@BTE Oops, I mean't "won't" not "can't." The article you linked says "as soon as July 31." I thought that was the indictment you thought was coming, not the federal one.