Will the next Speaker of the House be elected by end of day Tuesday?
Basic
28
Ṁ23k
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House of Representatives is elected by end of day Tuesday (11:59:59 PM ET), otherwise NO.

Context: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/02/house-speaker-vote-explained/10912271002/

If the first ballot fails to provide a speaker, lawmakers will continue to vote until a candidate receives a majority. Members can vote for different candidates each ballot. 

It's not common that there is more than one ballot, but it has happened.

In 1923, it took multiple ballots – nine – over the course of two months to elect a speaker. On three occasions prior to the Civil War, a speaker was not elected on the first ballot. In one instance, it took 133 ballots over a period of two months

Fine print: Only the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market. (Any Speaker pro tempore will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.)

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predicted YES

"The House has adjourned for the day at the request of Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma. It will reconvene tomorrow at noon."

Resolves NO at midnight

predicted YES

Chances for election today are dropping, here's a prediction market for tomorrow:

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