Will the next Speaker of the House be elected by end of day Wednesday Jan 4?

Question

Resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House of Representatives is elected by end of day Wednesday Jan 4 (11:59:59 PM ET), otherwise NO.

Context: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/01/02/house-speaker-vote-explained/10912271002/

If the first ballot fails to provide a speaker, lawmakers will continue to vote until a candidate receives a majority. Members can vote for different candidates each ballot.

It's not common that there is more than one ballot, but it has happened.

In 1923, it took multiple ballots – nine – over the course of two months to elect a speaker. On three occasions prior to the Civil War, a speaker was not elected on the first ballot. In one instance, it took 133 ballots over a period of two months.

Fine print: Only the first-elected Speaker of the House in the 118th United States Congress will count toward the resolution of this market. (Any Speaker pro tempore will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.)

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 5, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.