Will the Fed raise the fed funds rate by at least 100 bps (1.00%) in November?
Economics
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resolved Nov 3
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NO

At each of the Fed's last 3 meetings, they've raised the fed funds rate 75 bps (0.75%). At their next meeting in November, will they raise the rate by at least 100 bps?

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predicted NO

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/02/fed-hikes-by-another-three-quarters-of-a-point-taking-rates-to-the-highest-level-since-january-2008.html "Fed approves 0.75-point hike to take rates to highest since 2008 and hints at change in policy ahead"

Markets for December:

bought แน€300 of NO

Looks like the rate hikes are starting to trend more down than up

bought แน€48 of NO

very mispriced.. 75 bps is the limit we think

predicted NO

@CalebMoore I agree it's too high, but not necessarily way too high. In the weeks leading up to the September hike there was talk of a possible 100bps increase.

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