
Resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place by the end of July 2024 (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
Context: Musk says they're aiming for "late July"
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.
This is a binary version of https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l (fixed resolve date so that it can potentially be a prize market)
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