This is a two-part question:

• Will the 2025 US federal deficit be >$1.7T USD? Resolves according to the first official estimate released after the end of the fiscal year (normally in October). See https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD

• Which party will win the 2024 Presidential election? Resolves N/A if the winner is neither the Democrat nor Republican party.

The threshold of $1.7T is chosen based on projections from CBO: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946

The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033

HTML Format - At a Glance The Congressional Budget Office regularly publishes reports presenting its baseline projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like in the current year and over the next 10 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. This report is the latest in that series.