jack avatar
closes Jan 1, 2023
Will Russia destroy any satellite with anti-satellite weaponry in 2022?
6%
chance

Resolves YES if between now and the end of 2022, Russia destroys any satellite with anti-satellite weaponry, as determined by reliable media reporting. (Destroying a satellite with a anti-satellite missile test would count. Destroying a satellite by normal, intentional deorbiting would not count.)

Background:

Russia warned "it could target Western commercial satellites used for military purposes in support of Ukraine." https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-crimea-europe-government-and-politics-990aeb315f9de76ab32ff3674c6c660c

Last year, Russia conducted an anti-satellite missile test and destroyed one of their satellites: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59299101. Just this week the ISS maneuvered to avoid a piece of space debris resulting from that test: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/world/iss-maneuver-russia-space-junk-scn/index.html.

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jack avatar
Jack
bought Ṁ50 of NO

Oh, I didn't see that BTE already had a very similar question:

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@jack How likely do you think they are to destroy some satellite, but not Starlink?

Yev avatar
Yev ✔️
is predicting NO at 6%

@Yev Oh, that one is about an attempt. I can see how it could be higher given that general performance of Russian weapons :D