Resolves YES if Russia takes control of the train station "Bakhmut 2" in Bakhmut, Ukraine, at any point in time before June 1, 2023 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
If this area is shaded red on the ISW maps, the market will resolve YES. If this area remains shaded orange or not shaded for the entire time period, resolves NO. Resolution will be based on the ISW maps dated through May 31.
See https://manifold.markets/post/isw-ukraine-war-maps for context on how ISW maps are made, what they mean, and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source.
(Other reliable media reporting may be used instead if for some reason ISW is unavailable.)
Resolution criteria based on https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023
Related:
(Just making the title more descriptive, no change to the question itself): Will Russia control Bakhmut before June 1? → Will Russia control central Bakhmut before June 1?
1,000
3.00
Here's some helpful context on how ISW maps are made, because there's been a lot of questions about it. This should help explain how to interpret ISW's maps and why ISW is a commonly considered a reliable map source. (This is stuff that has been discussed in a lot of threads before, just summarizing it in one place here.)
ISW publishes maps which are updated daily to their interactive map https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap and their Ukraine conflict updates https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates.
ISW assesses control of territory (the red shading) based on visual evidence / geolocated footage. As an example, here is a detailed thread by one of the map authors showing how this is done for one day's updates: https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1643403932276858880. Because it moves only after verification based on visual evidence, the red shading is a relatively more conservative and reliable indicator of Russian control compared to the yellow shading and to some other maps, especially in contested areas. It may sometimes tend to lag some days behind other maps, depending on the speed at which visual evidence becomes available. In Bakhmut, advances in the red shading have often been several days behind the yellow shading and other maps. On the other hand, for an example where it updated quickly, after Ukraine retook Kherson, ISW's maps were updated within a day because of the plentiful visual evidence available.
So when an area becomes shaded red on ISW's maps, it means we can be highly confident that Russia has advanced there, whereas on other maps it may represent a lower level of confidence. This has obvious pros and cons (confidence vs latency of updates), just be aware of it when interpreting the maps.
The maps are updated at 3pm ET every day, and the conflict updates are published later that day with the same maps (note that they also say "Assessed Control ... as of 3:00 PM ET"). I.e. the historical maps for each day are available in those conflict updates. This is very helpful for using it as a resolution source, compared to other maps which update live and don't necessarily have an easily accessible historical archive.
@jack Thanks for the detailed post! I feel like ISW slowness is not that big of a problem for prediction markets: it's something that just needs to be factored in into predictions.
@42irrationalist I don't think it's a problem, I think it's actually a good thing in general. It means the question resolves when the change of control is more well established, and it's less likely for the map to quickly switch back and forth in control (as e.g. the deepstatemap did)
@juraj the description says that the question only resolves YES if the station is shaded red ("assessed Russian advance"), not yellow ("claimed Russian control").
@wadimiusz I get it now. There is still a long time. Hopefully this will reflect reality rather than single dubious source.
@EhWjwi However, right now. There is nothing ambiguous. Only Russia claims the territory.
Right now, control appears to be contested, based on multiple sources. Regardless, the question resolves solely based on ISW, who is a reputable and reliable source based on my knowledge. What it means for the area to be shaded red on the ISW maps is that they verified with visual evidence such as geolocated photos the presence of Russian forces there.
Another map: https://deepstatemap.live/en#15/48.5895/37.9919 currently shows the red line going almost to but not quite covering the train station (this is a different map source, not the resolution source, just providing more info). They had the red zone covering the station briefly but then they moved the red line back a bit in an update half a day later.
@jack ISW's map is very good, the deep state one lags behind with Russian gains but I'm sure we'll have information confirmed soon. Thanks for keeping up to date on this!
https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023
Implied probability of takeover by April 20 has increased to 85%
@Akzzz123 Not quite. There's a wide bid-ask spread of 68% to 85%. If we use the mid market price, the implied probability is 76%
@jack It's a weird feeling knowing that this particular 68% in your calculation is my order and my personal estimate is something ≈80-85% now!
The reason the order is at 68% is because I picked up some YES shares at 65% and figured I'd put an order for a number above it to experiment with InsightPrediction market dynamics. I am experimenting with a new prediction market service.
Assessed advances are within a mile of the station now.
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
@DiJekw My sense is Ukr will regroup somewhere on the west of the train station. I don't see how they can hold on to the east of the station.
@Akzzz123 russian government is collapsing and Ukrainian government is breaking down from corruption, it will be chaos. Wagner could send people to the train station tomorrow but it could also defect to ukraine or do something to render the sides meaningless.
