Will Prigozhin (leader of Wagner group) stay alive and free through end of July?
143
2kṀ44k
resolved Aug 21
Resolved
YES

Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES.

To clarify what that means:

  • If reliable media reports (at any time, even after July) say he was jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, then resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves YES.

  • To implement this definition, the market would resolve YES some time after July if no news indicates otherwise, but if later news comes out that he was indeed jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, then the resolution will update to NO.

Background: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66005256 Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny'"

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