🏅 Top traders

Prigozhin recorded a video from Africa. This seems to imply he was alive in July. I haven't seen the video, somehow it doesn't open in my Telegram, but Meduza is a trusted media.

https://meduza.io/news/2023/08/21/koshmarim-igil-al-kaedu-i-drugih-bandosov-evgeniy-prigozhin-zapisal-videoobraschenie-iz-afriki

«Кошмарим ИГИЛ, „Аль-Каеду“ и других бандосов». Евгений Пригожин записал видеообращение из Африки — Meduza

Основатель ЧВК Вагнера Евгений Пригожин записал видеообращение, как утверждается, из одной из стран Африки. Видео, в частности, опубликовал близкий к ЧВК телеграм-канал Grey Zone.

@42irrationalist should resolve YES @jack

I'm confused - you say "imply he was alive in July" - was the video recorded in July or in August?

@jack I guess he was just overly precise I referring to the relevant cutoff date for this market. If he's alive in August, he was in July so, too

@LeonardoKr Being alive in July does not answer the question. We need to know if he was alive at the end of July / into August.

@jack I've just watched the video and Prigozhin looks alive in it. The video is published today. What kind of evidence would be enough for a YES resolution?

I mean, it's possible that the video could've recorded earlier and published now and somehow the news of Prigozhin death wasn't leaked until now. But how likely is this scenario? Wouldn't it be easier to re-resolve the market in the unlikely scenario of him dying and people not even spreading this information as rumors?

you say "imply he was alive in July" - was the video recorded in July or in August?

What I meant that the August video implies that he was alive in July. Though it's hard to tell from the video itself when it was recorded. (See above for other thoughts)

Thanks for the info.

I already have said that it resolves YES at the end of August if no news comes out otherwise - the point being to minimize the chance that re-resolution is needed. So it would only be a wait of about a week from now regardless.

And I said

if there is reliable reporting that he is still alive and free now, then I can resolve YES earlier.

I think this is enough to resolve YES now, but I feel like this was a lot of unnecessary impatience haha.

@jack

😅 Well we wanna play

You both knew about the 1 month timeline, you shouldn't have spent all your mana here if you weren't willing to wait!

@jack TBH I just forgot about the 1-month timeline :D

What level of certainty will you require to solve this market?

Apparently he registered a firm in Belarus which I suppose is not possible if you're dead

@jack

Кіраўнік ПВК «Вагнэра» Прыгожын зарэгістраваў юрыдычную асобу ў Асіповіцкім раёне

Магілёўскі аблвыканкам зарэгістраваў у вёсцы Цэль ТАА «Канкорд Мэнэджмэнт і Кансалтынг», яго кіраўніком указаны Яўген Прыгожын, заўважыла Reform.by.

@LeonardoKroger That's dated July 19, so doesn't provide any new information because we already have photo evidence he was alive at the Africa summit July 28. I have still not seen any evidence dated to August.

@jack oops I took the date from an article that referenced this one and didn't check for the date. But my question remains, if this were am article from August, would the inference "he's not dead because he registered a firm" hold or do you need photo/video evidence?

@LeonardoKroger I feel like registering a firm isn't very strong evidence and even if that were dated August I'd rather just wait the 1 month as previously stated.

FYI - as per the description, I have set a tentative timeline of 1 month for any news to come out of his imprisonment or death or etc. Of course, it only counts if they report that it happened before end of July.

• If reliable media reports (at any time, even after July) say he was jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, then resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves YES.

• To implement this definition, the market would resolve YES some time after July if no news indicates otherwise, but if later news comes out that he was indeed jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, then the resolution will update to NO.

Although, if there is reliable reporting that he is still alive and free now, then I can resolve YES earlier.

Seems like there's a decent amount of evidence that he is, but not 100% conclusive. E.g. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66358269 and https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66333403 (note this was a few days before end of July, so there's a slim possibility something could have happened to him afterwards)

Wagner pauses fighter recruitment and focuses on Africa and Belarus - Prigozhin

The mercenary group’s head says it is deciding on its next goals, but has urged fighters to stay in touch.

https://twitter.com/IvanUlisesKK/status/1684483572822941696?s=20

@JoshuaWilkes Honestly he has such a generic face, I’m looking at that and wanting to see a body double but honestly I couldn’t tell you. I hope someone there is both in a position to know whether or not he is who he says he is, and also not in a position to be threatened not to speak out.

Also, lol at the jeans and tee lol doing photoshoots.

To answer the questions about how this resolves in the presence of uncertainty - let me clarify what the text of the resolution criteria means:

Resolves NO if Prigozhin is jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise resolves YES.

• If reliable media reports (at any time, even after July) say he was jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, then resolves NO

• Otherwise, resolves YES.

To implement this definition, the market may resolve YES if no news indicates otherwise, but if later news comes out that he was indeed jailed, imprisoned, arrested, kidnapped, or dead before the end of July, then the resolution will update to NO.

Make sense?

@jack other then my general preference for not re-resolving market that is exactly how I interpreted the market.

I suggest that resolving markets based on media consensus at the time of resolution should be the default. Otherwise it becomes hard to manage portfolio risk. I donate most of my net worth on a regular basis. One big re-resolved market would mean I need to start a new account.

@AlexbGoode I agree that there are downsides to re-resolving. To reduce the chance of that, for this market I'd plan to wait for at least 1 month before resolving YES, unless the media becomes more confident that he has remained alive and free.

The upside of re-resolving is that the question resolves more on ultimate ground truth, not on timing of news.

Media consensus at time of resolution is a reasonable rule, but then the question needs to specify what the resolution time is. Most questions today do not specify that in the rules. It's very common to wait for some time for info to come out - and the amount of time the author waits varies massively and is usually not specified in the question rules.

@jack I agree. My suggestion was meant specifically for your future markets. Since your markets are one of the best and most interesting on this platform I really like participating in them. The re-resolution risk is, for me, not ideal. However, it is a minor point. If you think the pros outweigh the cons I'll be okay:)

@AlexbGoode Yeah, it's worth thinking about. It seems like it would be good to have a couple variants of questions something like this:

• Will Prigozhin be arrested before end of July? Resolves based on media consensus by end of July. (I.e. if reliable reporting says he's arrested then it can resolve right away, but if it's unknown then resolves based on what's known at end of July.)

• Will Prigozhin be arrested before end of July? Resolves based on media consensus by end of August. (1 month for news to come out).

• Will Russia officially announce Prigozhin's arrest before end of July? (Requires the announcement to be before end of July)

• etc

@jack that would be ideal in a world where liquidity is not an issue. I fear that spreading the little existing liquidity over several markets might be worse than the re-resolution risk :)

Maybe you could test this and see what format traders prefer.