Will Leagues profit count only realized profits in Season 8?
3
161
90
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if at the start of the season, Leagues does not count unrealized profits. If it counts all realized profits, or if it counts only profits on resolved questions (a subset of realized profits), that would count as YES. This resolves based on the calculation at the beginning of the season, regardless of whether it later changes. (If leagues ceases to exist, or no longer counts profits at all, resolves N/A.)

Pros:

  • Counting unrealized profits is only "accurate" if the market price is "correct". It creates an incentive to manipulate market prices to create paper profits. This has been observed many many times now, and basically creates incentives for all markets to be gamed like whalebait markets.

  • Unrealized profits are often highly volatile

Cons:

Also note, counting realized profits on unresolved questions might create problematic incentives as well - you might want to sell your position to realize the profits for league standings, or you might want to wait so you can count them next month. So I believe it would be better to count only resolved questions.

For this question it doesn't matter what non-profit numbers are included in Leagues (e.g. bonuses, etc)

Related: https://manifold.markets/JamesGrugett/will-leagues-profit-be-calculated-o

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Resolves no @jack

tangential but why aren’t leagues % of portfolios?

(similarly, will conflux continue to make a last minute effort to inflate his paper profits but not enough to be in the higher league?)