Will Iran or Iran-backed forces again attack US forces in Syria and cause at least one casualty before May?
9
258
190
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if reliable media publications report that Iranian or Iranian-backed forces exchanged fire or any other "kinetic conflict" with US forces in Iraq and caused at least one casualty to the US forces, after March 23 and before May 1, local time. Otherwise NO.

Background

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3339691/us-conducts-airstrikes-in-syria-in-response-to-deadly-uav-attack/ - Suspected Iranian UAV attack kills and wounds US personnel in Syria on March 23. If another such attack occurs after this date in 2023, this question would resolve YES.

Resolution details

  • The identity of the attackers must be described as Iranian or Iranian-backed forces, or described as asssessed or suspected as such in official US announcements.

  • If US forces are injured as a result of a cyberattack or other non-kinetic conflict, that would not resolve YES.

  • US forces will be defined to include US military and US military contractors.

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predicted YES

I think this resolves YES, although I'm not 100% sure of how well confirmed it is that Iranians injured Americans in the follow-up wave of attacks. https://www.foxnews.com/world/new-iranian-rocket-attacks-injure-more-us-forces-in-syria says it is, but I didn't see it in other reporting at the time. If anyone has evidence to the contrary, let me know, otherwise will resolve YES shortly.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/syria-airstrike-us-contractor-killed-iran-drone-attack-joe-biden-lloyd-austin/

A U.S. service member was wounded in a series of new attacks Friday targeting U.S. bases in Syria following Thursday's fatal drone attack on a U.S. base, a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News. 

Right now I don't see anyone saying who the attacker was, but I'm predicting it will turn out to be Iran, given that these appear to be retaliatory strikes.

predicted YES

https://www.foxnews.com/world/new-iranian-rocket-attacks-injure-more-us-forces-in-syria

U.S. forces in Syria were injured Friday from Iranian rocket attacks targeted American outposts, Fox News has learned. 

The attacks occurred in Deir Ezzor in eastern Syria. A senior U.S. defense official said there were two separate attacks carried out by Iranian proxy forces targeting two U.S. bases. 

One was a rocket attack and the other involved multiple Iranian drones, the official said. The number of casualties has not been disclosed but some may be serious. The Pentagon was assessing its response.