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A bit off topic, but does manifold have a bug where a market resolving positively cause the profit graph to plummet? It looks like it went down by the amount I won in profit on this market.

@42irrationalist Check if it fixes itself in about half an hour. That looks like this bug: https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-mysterious-profit-spikes-b

@jack Thanks! Going to spend the next half an hour maniacally refreshing my profit graph! J/k (unless...)

This counts, right? Market should resolve YES

@Conflux Yes, I think https://apnews.com/article/twitter-musk-new-ceo-a5df68e9a1e5f982368390c73aeabb50 is sufficient to conclude that this is a serious and not a joke announcement.

Also: https://www.ft.com/content/edfead7f-27b5-441b-8971-8a161bad4830 "Elon Musk names Linda Yaccarino as new Twitter chief"

https://twitter.com/TitterDaily/status/1656804067304243202

if Elon Musk names a new CEO of Twitter by this date

A bit unclear which meaning you intended, seems any except [1] below are possible:

Musk to officially announce their selection

Now that phrase suggests to me it leans more towards [3] and/or [4]. Can you clarify?

@deagol Yes, 3 or 4 are closest, but I think the wording "officially announce their selection" is clearer than those definitions and that is what this will resolve on.

If there is anything that still seems ambiguous about that, please ask.

It's not quite 4, because if Musk decides privately but doesn't announce, that doesn't count.

@jack thanks, I guess there could be two interpretations for "officially announce their selection"

a) officially announce they’ve made a selection, or

b) officially announce who their selection is

Seems b) would be the most likely. Another thing is whether a twit from a company’s chief executive/chairman constitutes an official announcement. Seems to me there’s laws and regulations implying it should be, but this particular person’s historical twitting pattern throws any seriousness out the window.

@deagol officially announce who their selection is

A tweet by Elon counts as an official announcement if other evidence supports it being an official announcement as opposed to a joke. This may not be 100% clear, especially with Musk's track record, but I expect there to be a fairly clear consensus one way or the other in media reporting.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/elon-musk-interview-twitter-headquarters-sleeps-on-couch-dog-is-ceo-floki-bbc-news/

He has announced that his dog is the new CEO. This should resolve yes when we see that on an official SEC filing

@JonathanRay oops, it's a private company so there are no SEC filings. Probably resolves yes anyway.

@JonathanRay lol I can't believe people take these statements by Elon seriously, isn't it obviously a joke? If he said it in a context where it's an official announcement, then sure that would resolve yes.

If we took everything he said at face value, this would be a lot higher:

@jack He's followed through on similar jokes in the past. SEC filings described him as the technoking of Tesla and his CFO as the Master of Coin

@JonathanRay Hmm can a dog legally be CEO?

@jack using a joke title for a human makes perfect sense, but officially making a dog a corporate officer seems legally dubious.

@jack sort of a precedent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stubbs_(cat)