Will Deutsche Bank collapse at least 90% or be acquired before June 1?
22
297
410
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if before June, the bank experiences any of the following:

  • The bank's stock price closes on any day at least 90% down year-to-date (i.e. at least 90% lower compared to the opening price on the first trading day of 2023).

  • The bank's stock is delisted on the NYSE or halted for at least 1 month (see https://www.nyse.com/trade-halt-current). The halt only has to begin before June.

  • The bank is closed by government regulators.

Note:

  • For context, First Republic Bank (which hasn't failed yet but has received a $30B rescue from other banks) is currently down about 90% YTD.

  • Acquisition of a bank would mean the stock is delisted once the acquisition closes, and therefore count by the above criteria.

(Other than the 90% criteria, the exact criteria are a draft for now, please let me know if you have feedback, and I will finalize the question shortly.)

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