If limit orders become available and remain generally available for a period of at least one month, then resolves as follows:

Resolves based on "median market volume" on https://wasabipesto.com/jupyter/manifold/. Let the "before" figure be the median market volume for markets created in the past 1 month on the date limit orders are generally available. Let the "after" figure be the median market volume for markets created in the past 1 month, after limit orders have been available for 1 month. Resolves YES if the after figure is at least 3x the before figure, otherwise NO. Resolves N/A if this data is no longer available, or limit orders are not implemented before market close.

If limit orders are supported for a temporary period of less than a month, resolves N/A. If limit orders are supported and then go away and then come back, I will attempt to resolve in the spirit of this question as best as possible, with the goal of attempting to measure a roughly one-month period just before they are available vs a one-month period just after they become available, and resolve N/A if this is not feasible.

(Note that Manifold is also growing in general, so you should take that into account, although the growth from one month to the next has been far less than triple). See also: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/will-manifold-support-limit-orders

Close date updated to 2022-08-10 9:59 pm

Jul 20, 11:54pm: Will average market volume triple one month after limit orders become available? → Will median market volume triple one month after limit orders become available?