Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?
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126
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2025
2%
chance

Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18170/commercial-use-of-room-temp-superconductor/

Copy of Metaculus's resolution criteria:

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure.

To qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:

  • The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)

  • The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher

  • The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less

  • The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.

Fine Print

Metaculus will make a determination as to whether these criteria are satisfied and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.

Background

A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, describes a new material known as LK-99 which the authors claim exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. The veracity of the results are uncertain, but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it could revolutionize the electronics industry.

Previous efforts in high-temperature superconductivity have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 gigapascals (GPa) and below 138 Kelvin (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent research has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim has been called into question.

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