If Twitter and Elon Musk settle their lawsuit over the deal to buy Twitter, will Musk buy Twitter?
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127
แน€160
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
YES

Elon Musk said he is seeking to terminate the deal, Twitter has sued to enforce the deal. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/12/technology/twitter-lawsuit-musk-acquisition.html

If Twitter and Elon Musk settle their lawsuit over the deal, will the deal for Musk to buy Twitter close by the end of 2023?

Resolves YES if they settle the lawsuit out of court, and Musk closes the deal to buy Twitter by the end of 2023. Resolves NO if they settle the lawsuit, and Musk does not buy Twitter by the end of 2023 (for example, if the settlement terminates the deal with a breakup fee, or if in the settlement they agree to close the deal but it doesn't end up closing for whatever reason). Resolves N/A if they do not settle the lawsuit.

Resolution details:


Close date updated to 2022-10-27 9:18 pm

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predicted YES
predicted YES

The resolution of this depends on the ambiguity being discussed in https://manifold.markets/jack/will-twitter-and-elon-musk-settle-a about whether this counts as "settling their lawsuit".

If that resolves YES, this resolves YES. If that resolves NO, this resolves N/A.

If you have thoughts on this, please chime in on the other market. In the meantime, I have closed this market.

How does it resolve if they have some sort of deal where custody is temporarily transferred to Musk, then given back to shareholders? I don't think this is terribly likely, but I did hear speculation about an after court settlement
@LivInTheLookingGlass What? How would it happen? I am a shareholder and I'll get my $54.20/sh and walk away
predicted NO
Yeah same. In any case it resolves based on whether the merger deal closes - if Musk buys Twitter and then sells it off to someone else, that still counts.
https://twitter.com/kmedved/status/1548423959414157312 This thread is interesting. If Musk settles and don't buy, he endures the entirety of the financial burden. So I think that only a price cut would work for him.
predicted NO
@MP Yep, this is a good point, it depends on how much of the funds for the purchase he's putting up vs the banks and equity partners. I think he's still on the hook for the biggest chunk of it, so I think a breakup fee of say $10B would still work out in his favor compared to buying at 54.20, but I don't actually know the numbers.