If you're interested in potentially loaning mana to me, use this form to submit a bid https://forms.gle/QWrumA3hfeJNKCSh6. You may also comment a bid with the same info.
Resolves to the lowest yield bid for any M$1k loan at end of day Nov 8. Yield here will mean (Total repayment - M$1000) / M$1000.
Fine print:
Only confirmed bids (ones that I actually accept or could have accepted) will count, withdrawn bids will be excluded. I'll check before resolution whether the offer still remains on the table.
I may decide to take as many offers as I wish, potentially including none. Even if I take none, the market will still resolve to the lowest bid I could have taken.
If the resolution value is outside [0%, 100%] then the resolution will be clipped to this range. For example, if I am offered a loan where I repay less than I was lent, resolves 0%.
Resolves N/A if no bids are submitted.
Loans can be issued via this method to eliminate default risk: https://manifold.markets/Yev/i-want-to-invest-m1000-for-1-week-h#eJZMtOoAe4fI98fEFEhz
(This is very much like a bond auction, but I've used borrowing/lending terminology since that's more familiar for most people.)
Related:
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ21 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1 |
@L This is a pretty good question actually. I would be curious to hear more about how other people have used peer to peer loans on Manifold. For myself, I have more than enough mana for any "normal" trading and I've only needed more funds for whalebait markets, which is clearly not a great demonstration of value.
I've seen a couple example of people taking out loans just because they were running low on funds and wanted more funds to make normal predictions. I'm not sure how well this works in practice - one should expect to lose mana about half the time, and then how do you pay back the loan?
Another model is to take an equity stake in another trader's profits, but that also has issues, like now their profit incentives are distorted to be more risk-seeking because they only get a portion of the profits, and none of the losses.
I received the following bids for the total repayment for M$1000 loan:
M$500 (i.e. M$500 free mana for me). I am double checking whether this was an error and they meant M$500 of interest which would be M$1500 total repayment.
M$1100, i.e. 10% interest
"M$10,80" - this has some typo, I don't know whether it means 1,080 or something else
I pinged both of you with the possibly erroneous bids, please respond here or on discord if you can clarify these.
@jack This comment and a similar comment on the "want to lend" question are sitting at the top of the site-wide live feed because they have a time stamp in the future, which seems like it might be a bug.
@StevenK Yes, it's a bug, my local computer timestamp was wrong and ahead, and I reported it in discord and the team already fixed it from being on the live feed.
@Yev The clause "Withdrawn bids will be excluded. I'll check before resolution whether the offer still remains on the table." means that if they decide not to give the loan, it won't count.
