Does a random yes/no question resolve yes (given that it resolves yes or no)?
7
2
Ṁ240Ṁ189
resolved Jun 22
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
After market close, I will randomly pick a binary market that recently resolved yes or no, and resolve this market the same.
The procedure for randomly picking a market will be: at an arbitrary time around 1-2 days after market close, look at resolved markets sorted by resolve date (which shows most recently resolved first), and find the first one that resolved yes or no. (I promise not to deliberately choose the time with any intent to influence the outcome; however it is possible that the times I am awake and on Manifold have some weird correlation to resolution outcomes. The reason for this resolution procedure is it's simple and maybe a bit more resistant to manipulation than some of the other ideas I had - although it's certainly still possible to try to manipulate the outcome.)
Note: there are some stats that have been collected through the API about historical resolution outcomes at https://manifold.markets/stats but I thought it would be fun to make a market on predicting whether the current trend is different than historical. Of course, somebody could also collect more stats via the API if they so desired.
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As of right now, the first yes/no resolved market on https://manifold.markets/home?s=resolve-date is https://manifold.markets/BionicD0LPH1N/will-this-question-resolve-on-an-ev which resolved YES. (To help avoid bias I executed this resolution procedure as soon as I saw the email from last night telling me the market closed)