Resolves according to Snopes https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/harris-mcdonalds-college/ when they first publish a fact check rating that is not "Research in Progress"
If Snopes rates it as True or Mostly True, resolves YES. If False or Mostly False, resolves NO. If they rate it as Unproven, Unfounded, or Mixture resolves to Unknown. Other ratings should not be applicable as far as I know, if another rating is given then resolves to best judgement based on the prior criteria. See https://www.snopes.com/fact-check-ratings/
1,000
3.00This is a weird case - Snopes seems to have two separate articles on the topic:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/harris-mcdonalds-college/ (The article linked in the market body, I will refer to it as "McDonalds College")
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/harris-mcdonalds-job-college/ (A different article, linked by @Tripping, I will refer to it as "McDonalds Job College")
McDonalds College still is Research In Progress and has not been updated. McDonalds Job College is now Unproven, but was previously Research In Progress. So if this market is about either Snopes article, then it should resolve to "Unknown". But if this market is about the specific linked Snopes article, it should stay open until McDonalds College is updated. It will likely be updated in the same way, but it hasn't been yet.
I'd personally recommend leaving it open and waiting until McDonalds College is updated, but I do have a minor position in both YES and NO, so I'm incentivized to think that. Ultimately up to you @jack.
@Gabrielle The linked article by @jack has now been updated to "Unproven." So I think the question can undoubtedly be resolved as "Unknown".
@cthor it got updated https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/harris-mcdonalds-job-college/
you're looking at the old page
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/harris-mcdonalds-job-college/ Is this not resolution?
@jack If the status remains "Research In Progress" by the time the market is scheduled to close (Sep 30, 2024, at 11:59:00 PM at the time of this comment) will the market resolve to "Unknown" or will it be extended? If it is extended will there ever be a point where a "Research In Progress" rating results in a "Unknown" resolution? I am asking because there are many articles from 2021 (such as this one) and some from before that retain their "Research In Progress" rating.
@AaronSimansky Standard policy: Unless explicitly referenced in the rules, the close date is irrelevant and can be changed whenever (e.g. to extend it if the resolution hasn't happened yet). (Most experienced creators agree this should be true for all markets, but unfortunately it is not consistently followed by others)
Resolves according to Snopes https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/harris-mcdonalds-college/ when they first publish a fact check rating that is not "Research in Progress"
That's exactly how it will resolve. If it is still research in progress in years, then it won't resolve yet.
This is getting a lot of interest so I've upgraded to Plus!
And Harris is doubling down on her summer job at McDonald's: https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1829998879573442881
From a PR point of view, if Harris is proven to have worked at McDonald's, that would be a lightning rod for a right-wing boycott. I don't think McDonald's is very incentivized to look through their paperwork here.
Or they'll get some viral exposure of people setting their burgers on fire. The world is a strange place.
@Quroe are you for real lol. you think people might boycott McDonalds if it turns out Harris worked there in college?
I would put my own personal subjective odds somewhere between an 18% to 32% chance that it would happen if her work history is proven.
I know I'm in a left leaning news bubble, but my news bubble correctly predicted that conservatives would go after Hersheys during/after the green M&M boycott, suggesting it might have something to do with "her" or "she" in the name. It was a joke prediction.
And then it happened. You can check the release dates of these videos. So yeah, I'm partially joking, but a notable amount of me isn't.
8 min video https://youtu.be/xJ-LOvp-Y5I?si=KR5BcKW6XWTM9A8Z
5 min video https://youtu.be/2oI5JrvZxvA?si=rzutdAC6AgUJ45_7
@Quroe Boycotting because of marketing you find unappealing is miles away from boycotting because someone you don't like was a cashier there in the 80s.
@Strikehydra I might conditional on if this market resolves YES, but I don't know if I'd be the best judge since I am admittedly biased, and it would have to be a vibes check.
Plus I'd want to bet on such a market, and I'd have to recuse myself if I were running it.