A loose heat shield tile struck the outer flap area

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and an overpressure event caused it to rupture

Ice clogged the flap root pipe and trapped residual propellant expanding rapidly from reentry warming caused it to rupture

A Starlink simulator struck the outer flap area

Around T+0:46:59, Starship 37 flying IFT-10 experienced an energetic event in the engine bay that wrenched loose a segment of the aft shroud and caused significant damage to the left flap. 

Individual answers will be resolved YES or NO when I feel I understand the relevant facts well enough to be roughly an order of magnitude more confident in that resolution than the alternatives. 

You are welcome to share evidence, including your own investigation/reasoning!

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