Will Rishi Sunak hold the UK Prime Minister's office for at least two years?
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Ṁ1kṀ15kresolved Jul 8
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This market will resolve to "YES" if Rishi Sunak is the UK Prime Minister for at least 730 full days, counting from the time of pleading an oath of allegiance. Thus resolves on October 25.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@JamieRumbelow there's always a chance he wins the election. Can't find the markets right now, but Manifold generally seems to think there's a ~15% chance of a Conservative victory if I recall correctly.
@Fion I think they’re overpriced at that, if you can find me one that high I’d buy it down to 10% tops.
@Noit https://manifold.markets/MioszLupinski/will-tories-win-uk-2025-election-an here's one
@Fion That's true, but I'm not sure it's more than 1 in 10
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