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MANIFOLD
Will Rishi Sunak hold the UK Prime Minister's office for at least two years?
46
Ṁ1kṀ15k
resolved Jul 8
Resolved
NO

This market will resolve to "YES" if Rishi Sunak is the UK Prime Minister for at least 730 full days, counting from the time of pleading an oath of allegiance. Thus resolves on October 25.

Market context
UK Politics
Prime Millennial
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@itsTomekK this can resolve now

thank you sir!

Bought a lot of NO - the most likely times for an election are ~May 2024 and ~October 2024. And October 25th is rather late in the month!

@JamieRumbelow there's always a chance he wins the election. Can't find the markets right now, but Manifold generally seems to think there's a ~15% chance of a Conservative victory if I recall correctly.

predictedNO

@Fion I think they’re overpriced at that, if you can find me one that high I’d buy it down to 10% tops.

predictedNO

@Noit https://manifold.markets/MioszLupinski/will-tories-win-uk-2025-election-an here's one

@Fion That's true, but I'm not sure it's more than 1 in 10

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