This market will resolve to "Yes" if on January 1, 20243 (12 PM ET), Recep Tayyip Erdogan is officially recognised as the President of the Republic of Türkiye (Turkey). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
A consensus of credible media reports will be used to resolve this market. If the office of the President dissolves or substantially changes, this market will resolve to "No", regardless who is the executive head of Türkiye on January 1, 2024.
Is this market just slow to adjust to changes in Erdogan's electoral odds? I don't see why it would be trading 10% below whether he'll win the election or not. I would expect it to be slightly above, to account for the chance of an autogolpe.
Unless people are factoring in some big revolution or assassination between now and jan 1? I just wouldn't put the odds of that as very high.
@DanMan314 This market resolves on January 1, so it will take six months longer for traders to fully realize the profit. The election markets will resolve around June
Although polls suggest otherwise, I refuse to believe erdogan won't find a way to retain power lol.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/05/turkeys-kilicdaroglu-pulls-ahead-erdogan-latest-polls-campaign-heats
