This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31 2023, 12 AM ET, President Joe Biden declares a new National Emergency.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Under The National Emergencies Act of 1974 (enacted September 14, 1976, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 1601–1651), the President of the United States is empowered to activate special powers during a crisis. Congress has defined those statutory emergency powers, available to the President upon the declaration of an emergency (so called "National Emergency"). Congress also can terminate an emergency declaration with a joint resolution enacted into law.
Please note, for this market to resolve to "Yes" the national emergency declaration must be official, issued under authority of the National Emergencies Act by the Executive Office of the President. Any public announcement by President Biden without an official declaration will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". A continuation of any existing National Emergencies will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". An executive emergency order which is not subject to the provisions of the National Emergencies Act will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Register of official documents published by the Executive Office of the President (https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies/executive-office-of-the-president), however other official government sources may be used.
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@marketman 29 of the last 34 calendar years had a declared national emergency. Most of the recent ones are sanctions related to foreign policy goals, affecting people tied to Russia, China, Ethiopia, Burma, Mali, Syria, etc. Whether effective or not, such sanctions have become a popular default foreign policy tool.
The explosion of national emergencies in the 80s is really remarkable. Before the Reagan administration, there were 9 total emergencies; Reagan himself declared 6. From HW Bush's presidency, only five of the last 34 calendar years were free from declared national emergencies: 1989, 2002, 2005, 2013 and 2016. In two years, Biden has had 6; in four years, Trump had 11.