Will Manifold hit 5,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

This market asks whether the 7d Daily average of Manifold active users - displayed at https://manifold.markets/stats will hit 5,000 in 2023.

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Bloomberg exposure is a much bigger deal than NYT, given who reads it.

And the baseline is already higher due to OAI news.

There's a chance! (Was previously holding NO)

predicted YES

Non-average market to trade on spikes instead of 7d average: https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-manifold-have-more-than-5000-a

Manifold getting so much exposure on Twitter right now, this is definitely mispriced

@mdolr 5000 DAU 7d average is a very high bar, the current interest is not likely to get Manifold anywhere near that.

I don't understand how manifold isn't the most popular website on the internet.

I think the question now is will it get to 10k…

predicted YES

@BTE

The superconducting market is only just getting started

Going in on YES - this site is strangely addictive once you get into it.

Seems pretty stuck at the moment. Userbase hasn't grown since mid-November

@jonsimon If that Lex Fridman podcast mentioning manifold markets happens, there might be an influx of new users, and that can cause a significant peak

predicted NO

@firstuserhere he did mention it, and there was no spike. Evidence for No

predicted NO

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