Will Manifold hit 5,000 active users daily (7d average) in 2023?
resolved Jan 1

This market asks whether the 7d Daily average of Manifold active users - displayed at https://manifold.markets/stats will hit 5,000 in 2023.

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bought Ṁ50 of YES

Bloomberg exposure is a much bigger deal than NYT, given who reads it.

And the baseline is already higher due to OAI news.

There's a chance! (Was previously holding NO)

predicted YES

Non-average market to trade on spikes instead of 7d average: https://manifold.markets/jgyou/will-manifold-have-more-than-5000-a

bought Ṁ139 of YES

Manifold getting so much exposure on Twitter right now, this is definitely mispriced

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@mdolr 5000 DAU 7d average is a very high bar, the current interest is not likely to get Manifold anywhere near that.

I don't understand how manifold isn't the most popular website on the internet.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I think the question now is will it get to 10k…

predicted YES
bought Ṁ10 of YES

The superconducting market is only just getting started

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Going in on YES - this site is strangely addictive once you get into it.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Seems pretty stuck at the moment. Userbase hasn't grown since mid-November

@jonsimon If that Lex Fridman podcast mentioning manifold markets happens, there might be an influx of new users, and that can cause a significant peak

predicted NO

@firstuserhere he did mention it, and there was no spike. Evidence for No

predicted NO

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