FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if by March 31, 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meeting.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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This seems like free mana at 4% (in Teo weeks no less). Am I missing something?
@JimAusman Nomura has a rate cut call currently, while we're going through a banking crisis.
There's one more meeting, and there's speculation of a rate cut in that meeting, although the markets predict it is unlikely:
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