What will be the biggest topic of 2024?
What will be the biggest topic of 2024?
249
7.1kṀ46kresolved Jan 27
100%93%
US Presidential Elections
0.0%
Trump in jail
0.0%
World War III
1.7%
AI
0.0%
Putin's death
0.1%
Bitcoin
0.1%
Ukraine and Russia enter peace negotiations
0.2%
Israel – Palestine
0.1%
Collapse of Russia
0.0%
Assassination of Donald Trump
0.1%
Death of Joe Biden
0.0%
Reproductive rights
0.7%
Middle East regional conflict
0.2%
North Korea
0.1%
China/Taiwan
0.0%
Global economic crisis
0.0%
Measles epidemic(s)
0.5%
Trump
0.0%
H5N1 / bird flu outbreak(s)
0.3%
Iran - Israel
This market will resolve to the winner of the poll "What was the biggest topic of 2024", that will be run by @itsTomekK on January 10-15th, 2025
----
The top 15 answers on December 31 from this market will be taken to the poll.
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Poll link: here
Resolution date: The market will resolve after it closes on January 26.
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Poll link: here
Resolution date: The market will resolve after it closes on January 26.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.