What will be the biggest topic of 2024?
210
1.3K
6.3K
2025
68%
US Presidential Elections
9%
Other
5%
Iran - Israel
5%
AI
4%
Middle East regional conflict
2%
Israel – Palestine

This market will resolve to the winner of the poll "What was the biggest topic of 2024", that will be run by @itsTomekK on January 10-15th, 2025

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The top 15 answers on December 31 from this market will be taken to the poll.

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Will you close randomly to avoid market manipulation?

@SavioMak what do you mean?

@itsTomekK the top 15 answers will be taken for the poll. so someone could buy "us elections" down to 0% at the last second, it wouldn't be in the poll, and despite being the most important thing it would resolve NO

@Bayesian true, good point. What else could avoid it?

@itsTomekK if you end the market at some random time in the week or day preceding the close date that should account for it. anyone trying schemes like that will give lots of free mana to anyone that corrects it

@SavioMak Thanks for raising this point

As a rule of thumb, governments collapse way more often than most Americans expect.

"Biggest" in what sense? Is this another "Musk Zuckerberg fight biggest flop is the real flop here"-market?

"Middle East regional conflict" and "Israel – Palestine" are both listed as options. Wouldn't the second one be included in the first one?

What defines "biggest"? Most news coverage? Then the question becomes which outlets? The election could well be the most written about topic, but will it the most read given the elections in India? WW3 would be the most significant happening but wouldn't have too much TV or newspaper coverage given there wouldn't be much TV and the paper would be needed for warmth and toilet paper...

@AnthonyPettit Basically you need to predict what people will vote on when asked "What was the biggest topic"

@itsTomekK Ah so not actually the biggest story but what people will pick as biggest story.

@AnthonyPettit that's what it will resolve to, hopefully people will poll on the biggest!

@itsTomekK i was thinknig how to define biggest - wikipedia pageviews? google trends?

@itsTomekK objectively it would be impossible to get a truly "correct" answer. Ignoring ww3 cause many of us will be focused on hunting and gathering etc. and the other ones that probably won't happen. Elections will no doubt take center stage but not exclusively the US pres election. EU parliament, UK general election, Indian election will all be topics receiving far more coverage in their local news (well maybe not the EU parliament). Wikipedia page views or Google trends wouldn't give a good level of comparison given the geographic differences.

@AnthonyPettit true, that's why i find it interesting to resolve to a poll


I'm also curious how to frame 'biggest yet unexpected event'?

@itsTomekK The market is framing that to some extent. “Collapse of Russia” and “Assassination of Donald Trump” for instance are not expected, but if one of those does happen, it will be really big.

@ClubmasterTransparent Yes, that's why i started this, thinkin of surprises. However, AI or Presidential elections in the USA rather wouldn't surprise anyone being the big topic....

I was thinking about doing derivation on some other market... ie. which events from market 'what happens in 2024' will trade on average below 10% for majority of time, etc....