Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,750 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,050 | |
| 3 | Ṁ669 | |
| 4 | Ṁ400 | |
| 5 | Ṁ199 |
📢Resolved to 40k
📝Used 3 sources, all similar with 44700 intra, 44202 historical (BTC exchanges change over using UTC so anything crypto for 2023 can resolve as of 7pm ET).
@deagol 44,700 intra / 44,202 historical. So Tomek would resolve as 40? Is that my understanding from the conversation below.
@itsTomekK 7 day does not cover all of 2023 or period of the claim. ??
As it happens 52 week high is reported as 44726.37 so it doesn't look like it matters
@ChristopherRandles Where does coingecko report the 52w high? I couldn’t find it. I do agree it seems it won’t matter this time, I guess we got lucky.
But all these claims leave a lot hanging on random and arbitrary data vacuums from insufficient historical records by the most popular sources, and some creators are just too lazy to bother with precisely determinable criteria. It’s easy to look at a 1y chart and assume the data is there, we’ll figure it out if something isn’t obvious. But this is bad, introduces unnecessary subjectivity, lawyering noise, inefficient trading and delayed resolutions.
@deagol I didn't find it at coin gecko, I just googled bitcoin 52 week high which seems to source it from https://www.barchart.com/crypto/quotes/%5EBTCUSD
marketwatch suggests 44701, coindesk reports $44,723.88.
So slight variations. With $5000 ranges it would be unfortunate if some were over and some under a $5000 demarkation. Ideally questions should be better defined, yes. OTOH extremely long could become a tldr offputting problem.
@ChristopherRandles I saw a case of a metaculus market (found link from manifold but I’ve lost it) where the resolution was disputed and wrongly overturned, the arbitration process got it wrong because the data (coingecko) was ephimeral and inconsistent with other sources. This may be unlikely but should be easily avoided by sticking to reliable data sources (there are a few, but neither coingecko nor google are adequate for this), no need to have any lengthy criteria at all. Creators, this isn’t complicated, just research your data sources and avoid disputes.
45/44.7-1=0.7% is extremely close, not unfortunate I rather see it as very fortunate we didn’t hit it one day on some exchanges/sources while the criteria here left it up in the air (btw this might still happen over the next 3 days, market showing 1/4 chances it hits means a huge potential ambiguity for something that should be indisputable). Swings of that size, on this asset, happen nearly every day, and often several times per day.
