Ukraine's Armed Forces estimate Russia's losses daily, which is published by Kyiv Independent.
This market will resolve based on these estimations as of January 1, 2023 - or the nearest available date.
https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/
past numbers:
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@kolotom99 263.3 per day to reach 100,000. Seems likely.
430 per day to reach 103,000, down from 432 two days ago. Very much possible.
The problem with this market is that the numbers being used are totally inaccurate, they are not confirmed by anyone - this is the "Kyiv Independent" who have shown themselves countless times to be a biased actor, who are getting these figures directly from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry who head up the military. These numbers are significantly higher than those which are estimated in quotes from other sources such as the US Army/Pentagon, the British foreign office and others (not to mention, the Russians themselves, though it should go without saying that they are likewise going to be similarly biased in their reporting of numbers, just in the other direction).
Might want to rename this title or something. If going by numbers which are actually confirmed using visual sources, death records, confirmations/admissions from involved parties etc. the number of deaths is a lot closer to about 40-45k last I looked into it.
@dieselbaby I think the question is OK as-is, since the description clearly describes the resolution source. Of course, the title could also mention the source, but I can understand if the creator is reluctant to change it.
Finding a less biased source is tricky. See here for an in-depth discussion: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9945/ukraine-conflict-challenge-discussion/#comment-105881
If Russia has 338+ losses a day for the next 27 days it will reach 100k. In the past 27 days Russia has averaged 544 losses a day. I think losses will increase as more mobilized troop reach the front lines.
As Ukraine is an active participant in the conflict with a natural interest in overstating enemy casualties, their estimates cannot be considered properly impartial or reliable. The Ukriane-given Russian casualty estimate is a fine thing to bet on, but it is not the same as the actual number - the title as-is ('War in Ukraine: Will Russia lose 100,000 troops by the end of 2022?' at the time of writing) is somewhat misleading, and so is probably worth changing.
@AngolaMaldives Good point. Do you suggest some better title? Like: "Will Russia loose 100,000 troops (as estimated by UAF) by Dec 31"?