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Wait did you change the close time? I thought the market would be closed by the time the result came out, so my limit orders would be safe 😭 Maybe I just misread

@fela The close time was extended because the 2/28 morning statistics were not definitive.

@XComhghall but it says estimate

@XComhghall I know the statistics were not definitive based on the other comments, but it's okay to close trading a bit before resolution. Not a big deal but I would not have left open limit order if I knew the resolution became known before the end of trading, as I just gave away free 500 mana this way (would actually have been worse potentially if the result ended the other way though as I had open limit order there as well). I feel in general it's better not to change the close date for this reason

To be clear, I was confused by the end of trading time being changed, not be 1st of March data being included in the stats (which also seems bad as one needed to read the comments to correctly interpret the results correctly, but I knew about that myself).

Yeah the whole market was super messy. How much did you lose from that order?

@Gen I think around 500 mana, but still made around 1000 mana overall so I guess I can't complain... :D

I'm sorry, my bad

still open

@itsTomekK Why? February ended 10 hours ago in Ukraine and that's when this market closed too.

@Birger Can’t report the days losses until the day is over. They tally and release the following day

@Gen but it is the Ukrainian estimate of Russia's losses that has to be in feb. no?

@Gen it say YES if in feb, estimate losses

@Birger I assume so, that’s why I’m buying NO

i bought more so you know I agree, lol

I think the final datapoint already exists, but the resolution still comes the day after

@Gen @Birger 3/1 data is published in the morning. It actually reflects data at the end of 2/28.

@XComhghall But this is a prediction on the estimate published in February

@Birger It doesn't matter anyway, they published March 1st as 149890 troops

@Gen this is true :D

But yes, if this is how the market is being resolved (based on March 1 datapoint) then the title should say "As of march 1" instead of "February 2023". I see in comments that past markets have had the same problem, with the same complaint, and the maker continues to format it like this. Really weird.

I also originally thought that it meant 150k just in February, until I read the description, which was still not clear on how the resolution is determined.

@Gen I agree, nothing in the description or title justifies it as of March 1st. Even the original close date was an indication for by February. It is also suspicious, considering the market maker has a big "yes" position. I can't see any reason to reopen the market other than hoping for it to reach $15,000,000 by March 1st to profit.

@Birger TK is trustworthy. The position was due to a limit order. He was clearer with past markets like this one.

@XComhghall thats good

the Ukrainian estimate of Russia's losses reaches 149,240 troops.