February 2023: Will Russia lose more than 150,000 troops?
55%
chance

Will resolve to YES if in February 2023, the Ukrainian estimate of Russia's losses reaches 150,000 troops.

https://www.instagram.com/kyivindependent_official/


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XComhghall avatar
XComhghallsold Ṁ16 of NO

2023

01-23, 770.81 per day

01-25, 769.14 per day

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall

(150000 − n) ÷ (28 + 31 + 1 − d)

01-27, 766.36 per day

XComhghall avatar
XComhghallis predicting YES at 43%

01-29, 769.03 per day

XComhghall avatar
XComhghallis predicting YES at 40%

(150000 − n) ÷ (28 + 1 − d)

01-31, 775.86 per day

XComhghall avatar
XComhghallis predicting YES at 40%

02-02, 776.67 per day

XComhghall avatar
XComhghallis predicting YES at 55%

02-04, 776.4

XComhghall avatar
XComhghall

(150000 − 121480) ÷ (28 + 31 + 1 − 23) =

770.810810811 per day

Unlikely

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡is predicting YES at 46%

@XComhghall what number do you think would be at 50% now?

XComhghall avatar
XComhghallis predicting NO at 40%

@itsTomekK I'd say 720 per day * (28 + 31 + 1 − 23) + 121480 = 148,120, but I just noticed that they are losing soldiers more rapidly since 01-16, not sure if it's a trend that will continue.