This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made 10 predictions on US economy events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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December inflation published in January 2024 (that is, CPI change from December 2022 to December 2023)?
Or the average of 12 months (Jan 22 to Jan 23, Feb 22 to Feb 23, Mar 22 to Mar 23, etc.)?
Or what 2023 inflation, please?
@XComhghall good question, my bet is that he meant January24 to January 23 annual inflation
@itsTomekK I just saw the discussion at /itsTomekK/economy-2023-us-inflation-above-40, which also suggested that it would be the 12-month CPI-U change in a single month.
But how will you resolve these markets? What criterion will you use, or will Matthew Yglesias publish the results of his predictions? Thanks.
@XComhghall I think I will email him before the year ends maybe? Unless it's gonna be clear
@itsTomekK I think it is clear enough. 3.4% Dec to Dec and even if it was annual average only Jan above 6% at 6.4% average is clearly less than 6%