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@itsTomekK Resolves NO. Biden was ahead in April.

Does “by the US elections” mean before polls close?

@Vortex That's a good point, it's contradictory with the title of the question isn't it.

As in the orange line never goes below the blue line in that graph, starting today?

Hmm I would think this market should be tracking with trump’s current win percentage (if he loses of course, he will be surpassed in likelihood) adjusted downards for 11 months worth of volatility.