via 538, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
This market will resolve YES, if at any point in 2023, Biden's Approval Rating will be below 37.5
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This market will resolve to the bold line as indicated at the 538 chart. In case of a tie, detailed data to calculate averages will be used to resolve.
Please note, there is a second very similar market that uses 37.6% as the line.
And here is the market for 2024:
Related questions
I'm sorry if this market became such a mess. Most markets should account for methodology changes when using external resolution source.
This one resolves N/A, there couldn't be better resolution in this situation. The 37.6 resolves YES.
Thank you for game and comments, see you in other markets!
@itsTomekK I think going by the current methodology for both numbers would be slightly better but fully support the decision to N/A
@SirCryptomind I made it in January, look at the screenshot, it was the all time low at 538
@itsTomekK Same date shown in description of market (July 21st 2022), shows this as of today:
Is it possible this is the corrected new all time low of 38.4% using the new methodology/calculations , which than makes both markets having already reached below 38.4% using the new methodology/calculations this December 2nd and 9th when it hit 37.6%?
@SirCryptomind The 37.5 was from the Nate Silver era (37.527667 on 7/21/22, data's on github). In the current average (G Elliot Morris's model), the minimum is 37.5817 on 12/7/23.
I'm not playing the 37.6 market until I know what @itsTomekK is going to do about the rules, but since the rules said nothing about consulting the underlying data, my opinion is that it was a tie and is therefore still a no. No matter which data you look at, though, we have not gone below 37.5.
my uninformed view is probability is closer to 25% than 55%
The low in the current G Elliot Morris data was 37.5817 on 12/7/23.
Since the rules only mentioned the topline number with one decimal, the 37.6 market is technically a tie, and both markets are still alive. He has not surpassed his lowest mark.
Further, in the Nate Silver era data which I think is on github, the low was 37.53.
@ScottSupak When did this "era of data" change over to what it is today? (I think if I understand you right, that the way data was handled changed at some point)
@SirCryptomind Looks like last entry in the old model was 2023-06-27
https://github.com/fivethirtyeight/data/blob/master/polls/old_model/joe_biden_approval_old_model.csv
@SirCryptomind And yes, they changed a lot, and have changed things a few times since GEM took over, including a recent overhaul to the house effect adjustments that resulted in him losing 0.6%
@ScottSupak
So this 37.5% market is (based off of when this market was created) was using the old model?
Creation Date Of This Market:
The 37.6% market was created Jul 3, 2023. So new data set?
@itsTomekK The "All Time Low" being 37.6% , how can the title correction to "all time low 37.5%" make this actual & factual?
@SirCryptomind But actually with the methodology changes, it's now 37.9%, or 37.871 more specifically. imho these should both resolve YES. The all-time low was reached. https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/2023-will-bidens-approval-rating-hi#jHAJNVUifwuInCyNgW6J
Thoughts on @Shump statement @ScottSupak ; I feel like you may know a bit about what they are explaining/asking.
@SirCryptomind the description clearly states the resolution criteria - appproval being under 37.5. Only change was mentioning the threshold also in the title.
@Weezing Oh i was not arguing anything, I was fully trading off the 37.5% in the description. But I am more asking because it seems inaccurate compared to the other same market.