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@itsTomekK Sérgio Massa just conceded

https://cdn.atlasintel.org/9edd934d-81ac-437e-9b54-39632c26d37b.pdf

One more Atlas encuesta. They're still calling Milei at 52.1% of valid votes.

The issue comes to how voters are migrating from Bullrich, Schiaretti, and Bregman. 76% of Bullrich voters are going for Milei, but only 52% of Schiaretti are going for Massa (with a whopping 29.7% going for Milei) and only 73% of Bregman are going for Massa. This looks like leftists fighting against leftists, my favorite sport to watch eating pop corn.

I really don't see a path for Massa without changing some Bullrich voters minds. And that obviously seems complicated.

@MP Massa is banking on Bullrich voters not voting for anyone

@MP Also a few of Bullrich voters came from Larreta in the primaries, and those don't obviously lean Milei

I want a bit of leverage as I finish building my position. Bet against me!

Betano is subsiding this bet, but they have Milei at around 55%. Same for Polymarket. And Atlas has Milei ahead by 4pts. Seems like a great bet.

@itsTomekK can I request that this market closes before election night? Parimutuel markets have really unfortunate properties in situations where they remain open during the resolution period (where one probability moves towards 100%). See e.g. here: https://kevin.zielnicki.com/2022/02/17/manifold/

If I remember correctly, this market was initially set to close earlier and was extended. I think a close on Nov 18 would be ideal.

Side note: The newer CPMM markets don't have that issue, e.g. https://manifold.markets/WilliamDominguez/who-will-win-the-argentinian-presid

Mismatched Monetary Motivation in Manifold Markets · Kevin Zielnicki

@ansgar good point, fixed close date

If Milei doesn't win in October, will people really swing to him? Even if he's the most popular first choice, which is believable, is he really that many people's second choice?

@sziner The question is who's most disliked between Milei and Massa among those who vote for Bullrich as the first choice.

I think Milei has a decent chance to win

41% Milei

@SG if he wins, I expect he will be the main libertarian brought up for decades to come. Whenever people seriously think of voting libertarian they will think of milei

Here is my version of the question that closes before election day, (so late parimutuel betters can't take from it).

PASO results just hit the tape. With 60% of the polls:

Milei leads with 32%

JxC with 27% (17% for Bullrich)

Union pela pátria (24%), the peronist coalition

It seems to be JxC election to lose, but who knows. Milei seems to have outperformed big time

Where is Massa?

@Svenbonne only for real GOAT-Believers

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