Regardless of whether LK-99 results can or cannot be replicated, there is uncertainty as to whether key evidence adduced to claims of its superconductivity in preprints (such as: conductivity data, videos of levitation) were produced through academic fraud. This market will resolve as yes should a major news outlet report that there is credible evidence that data in either of the two papers was produced by fraudulent means by the end of 2023, and otherwise as no.