Will someone write a new diamond age book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028
Will someone write a new diamond age book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028
0
1002029
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will someone write a new Sophie's world book featuring @arithmoquine, repligate, @adic_9, JDP, or parafactual by 2028
50% chance
Will janus/repligate, Alex Zhu,gaspode,gwern, JDP, qiaochu, adic_9 all be written into final fantasy game/fanfic by 2029
50% chance
Will adic_9 and Henry (arithmoquine) both play dark forest eth by EOY 2025
64% chance
Will someone write a fanfic featuring 3 of turntrout, quintin pope, Nora Melrose, Leo Gao, JDP, or repligate by EOY2026
39% chance
Will a new zork-like game simulate @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, and @KatanHya as NPCs by 2030?
75% chance
📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?
77% chance
Will @repligate, @AlkahestMu, @AndyAyrey, @xenoludicpraxis, or @KatanHya be worked into next cyberpunk or deus ex game?
45% chance
Will someone write book about saving the world (HPMOR) featuring at least 5 SERI MATS people by 2029? (Pseudonyms ok)
20% chance
Will a fanfic of repligate, gwern, JDP, Sonia Joseph,andgaspode going thru Hogwarts together +saving the world by 2028
50% chance