Will Delian Asparouhov vote/endorse Republican in the 2024 presidential election?
Will Delian Asparouhov vote/endorse Republican in the 2024 presidential election?
1
120Ṁ1Jan 1
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will David Shor vote for at least one Republican by 2050?
50% chance
Will Bryan Caplan vote LIBERTARIAN in the 2028 presidential election?
48% chance
Will Elon Musk vote for the Republican party in 2028?
71% chance
Will Razib Khan vote REPUBLICAN in the 2028 presidential election?
52% chance
Will Mitt Romney endorse or vote for the Democrat in 2024?
5% chance
Will a Republican win New York for President by 2050?
33% chance
Will Stephen Hsu vote REPUBLICAN in the 2026 Michigan senate midterms?
50% chance
Will Rochelle Shen vote Republican on ANY ticket by 2040?
41% chance
Will Alexandr Wang vote TRUMP in the 2024 presidential election?
50% chance